Value in equities today is like the emperor's new clothes: no one believes in it, but everyone believes everyone else believes in it. Thus we will dance till the music stops because the market will stay irrational longer than you can stay in your short position and the trend is your friend until the moment when everyone is rushing towards the exit.
It's easy to be an equity bull: equity will rally so long as QE doesn't stop, and when it stops, economics would have improved which creates reasons for further rallying, and yields will go up making equities look attractive relative to credit. But that all seems to have been priced in: unless we are in for some upside surprises I fail to see the case for equities. If you are a value hunter, you shouldn't buy equities. The trend will be with equities for a while, we all know that. But the crucial question is when we will hear the resounding "but he isn't wearing anything at all!", a bullet for which there will be many victims.
Inscription à :
Publier les commentaires (Atom)
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire